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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still